President-elect Donald Trump has released a list of 21 potential nominees to the Supreme Court -- the people he choose to replace Justice Antonin Scalia and other potential vacant seats -- are a direct result of conservative casting.
The conservative casting comes from the fact that Trump has said that two deeply conservative organizations -- the Heritage Foundation think tank, and the Federalist Society legal organization, helped him compile his list for the vacant seat. This makes sense because they have been stronger supporters of his campaign during the time of the election, so he will need their support in order to effectively accomplish his list of items on his political agenda. Besides vowing to replace Scalia with an ideological twin, Trump has said that his pick will seek to overturn Roe vs. Wade and be a strong supporter of the Second Amendment.
If he chooses someone too far to the right, he risks more national and political conflict, Thus, it will endanger the effectiveness of his new presidency. Nominate a centrist, however, and Trump risks a backlash from the conservative organizations poised to play a significant role in his success -- or failure -- as the new president.
Lastly, the Democrats have said that they will filibuster Trump's nomination if they consider that person incompetent or too far right.
So a few questions particularly come to mind....
1) Who and how will Trump choose to fill the vacant seat in the Supreme court?
2) How will Trump find a candidate that both his conservative supporters and opposing Democrats find acceptable?
3) Will Trump actually pick someone from his list that he released? Or will he completely deviate from it due to his flip-floppy nature?
4) Trump has publicly stated that he really likes Scalia and vows to appoint someone in the "Mold of Scalia." Will he keep his promise? Furthermore, in knowing this, is it possible to narrow it down to a few judges from the list of 21?
Although Trump's list of potential appointees appears to be filled with conservative candidates, I believe Trump will end up selecting some who is more moderate. Trump knows that if he appoints a justice that is too conservative, the democrats in the Senate will filibuster and inhibit the justice from being accepted into their position. In addition, I believe Trump is more ideologically moderate than he has made himself appear during the course of the election and the weeks that have followed. I feel that despite pressure from conservative entities, Trump will be forced to select a candidate that is more moderate in order to insure the cooperation of the Senate.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see how Trump combines his personal ideology with that of the Republican party. In the past, he has proven to be quite moderate. In fact, at one point in his life, he told CNN that he "probably identif[ies] more as a Democrat." I wonder how this will affect his Supreme Court appointment(s).
DeleteI think this [his past ideological views] is something to keep in mind when determining how/who he will chose as a candidate. I think he will most likely lean toward someone who is more conservative but still on the moderate side. I do not think he will be able to appoint anyone else who is not this for fear that the democrats will filibuster. Additionally I do not think that he will be able to successfully appoint someone who supports overturning Roe v Wade due to the democrats filibustering it.
DeleteI believe that Trump will disregard his past Democratic ideals in order to gain more trust from his Republican supporters. Because of this, I believe Trump will nominate a conservative judge to appease his uneasy supporters.
DeleteI agree with Alex and believe that Trump will choose somebody that is more moderate in order to worth with parties. I think it will be impossible to have somebody that each party is happy with, however I think that the person will moderate enough to make democrats okay with the pick. One thing that I think will be a problem is whether the choice is qualified enough. Trump has picked many people for his cabinet that are not qualified for the job and that might be an issue in the choice for the Justice also.
DeleteAlthough Trump will have to pick somebody who is accepted by both parties in order to get them accepted into the Supreme Court, he will most likely choose a person who is more conservative rather than liberal. Because Scalia was a conservative justice, Trump will have an easier time replacing him with another conservative. Democrats will have to accept this as long as the person chosen is qualified for the position. However, in the future if there is another vacant seat in the Supreme Court, it will probably be at least a swing or liberal position. If Trump tries to replace one of those seats with a conservative, then Democrats will have more reason to fight his nomination and filibuster in the Senate.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Claire's comment. Furthermore, since the Democrats used the "nuclear option" to confirm a few judicial nominations, the Republican's inability to obtain a 60% filibuster proof majority will not really affect the confirmation process, as the Senate can opt not to allow filibusters during judicial nominations. Thus, Trump will probably be able to get away with appointing more conservative judges without the fear of Democratic backlash in Congress.
DeleteTrump will most likely choose a more conservative judge to please the Republican Party. Many are skeptical of his presidency and he can take a step in the direction of good because choosing a good replacement for Scalia. Democrats will oppose this action because they are liberal but in order to maintain the balance in the Supreme Court, Trump should choose a conservative judge.
ReplyDeleteTrump will choose a conservative judge to keep balance in the supreme court, and to show his supporters that he will follow through with the promises made throughout his campaign. It will be hard to gain the support of Democrats but, Republicans hold the majority, and I imagine that he'd pick someone who is a more moderate conservative, to gain any Democratic support that he can.
ReplyDeleteBecause of the mounting pressure from both conservatives and liberals alike, it's unlikely that Trump will stray away from his current list of nominees. It's quite prevalent that his nomination will align with the conservative side to maintain the balance of power that existed before Scalia's death, and a filibuster of this nomination in the Senate will probably not achieve much.
ReplyDelete