Just when we were expecting the October surprises to be over, FBI Director Comey publicly reopened investigations into Clinton's email servers 3 days ago. Characteristic of her entire general campaign, it seems that Clinton will constantly be burdened by the weight of FBI indictments and investigations into her private email server, despite being cleared of charges during the summer. As expected from an October surprise, the Trump camp jumped on the opportunity to drag Clinton through the dirt, and the new bombshell 'allegations' have effectively shrunk Clinton's chances of winning from 82.2% (prior to Comey sending the letter to Congress to 66.9% (November 6th) (fivethirtyeight.com).
However, will this 'October' (it's already November!) surprise sway voters so dramatically as to cause an upset come Tuesday? According to Enten, author of
"How Much Do 'October Surprises' Move The Polls?", history shows that October surprises aren't the 'game-changers they're sometimes portrayed to be'. Yes, news of Bush's DUI may have caused the popular vote to swing Gore's way during the 2000 election, but Enten argues that this occurrence was anomalous when compared to other elections.
Despite historical data indicating that the FBI bombshell will not cause substantial damage to the Clinton camp, it wouldn't be difficult to believe that this will be another anomalous election in the history of American democracy. After all, this has been one of the most unconventional elections in modern American election history.
Questions to think about:
Do you think the FBI probe into Clinton's emails will cost her the election?
On Sunday, FBI announced that they have not found any incriminating evidence and are closing the investigation again. Does this revelation come too late, and will it play to either candidates' favours?
When do you think campaigns are decided? Months, weeks, or days before election day?