However, will this 'October' (it's already November!) surprise sway voters so dramatically as to cause an upset come Tuesday? According to Enten, author of "How Much Do 'October Surprises' Move The Polls?", history shows that October surprises aren't the 'game-changers they're sometimes portrayed to be'. Yes, news of Bush's DUI may have caused the popular vote to swing Gore's way during the 2000 election, but Enten argues that this occurrence was anomalous when compared to other elections.
Despite historical data indicating that the FBI bombshell will not cause substantial damage to the Clinton camp, it wouldn't be difficult to believe that this will be another anomalous election in the history of American democracy. After all, this has been one of the most unconventional elections in modern American election history.
Questions to think about:
Do you think the FBI probe into Clinton's emails will cost her the election?
On Sunday, FBI announced that they have not found any incriminating evidence and are closing the investigation again. Does this revelation come too late, and will it play to either candidates' favours?
When do you think campaigns are decided? Months, weeks, or days before election day?
I think the most detrimental part of Comey's ambiguous statement is that Trump supporters have been waiting for another reason to attack Hillary, and they are taking advantage of this situation. Even after both Fox News and Comey had to retract/alter their statements briefly, the damage to Clinton's campaign is irreversible. That one piece of what appears to be ambitious and false information could completely change the predicted outcome of this election.
ReplyDeleteThis October surprise probably affected swing voters in swing states and was a game changer. This election was so unpredictable and unprecedented that the October surprise would have a bigger effect than usual. People were still undecided when Comey came out with this report. This was a big factor that helped decide the election. This election was probably decided really close to election day. This was more publicity that was detrimental to Hillary's campaign.
ReplyDeleteThis October surprise probably affected swing voters in swing states and was a game changer. This election was so unpredictable and unprecedented that the October surprise would have a bigger effect than usual. People were still undecided when Comey came out with this report so it did change voter's mind or help them decide their vote. This election was probably decided really close to election day. Hillary's campaign encountered so much negative attention in the media and had harder time defending themselves than Trump. People and the media were harder on Clinton than Trump.
ReplyDeleteThere were states in the election that were supposed to go to Hillary but in the end were extremely close and went to Trump. I think that Comey's October surprise convinced people who weren't sure to vote for Trump and ultimately gave him the election.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the FBI's reopening of the case swayed many voters. Clinton already has a bad reputation for her email scandal and its logical to say that most informed voters had either come to terms with it and had accepted it. In a broad sense, elections seem to be determined by the actual results, as the polls perceiving Clinton's victory were completely wrong.
ReplyDeleteAs we've seen in this past election, elections are not decided until the actual day when people vote. There are many reasons why this is true and why Trump's victory was so unexpected. I think that there were many people in the country who didn't openly state their support for Trump because he was opposed by many who those individuals might have known, and that supporting Trump showed something about how strong their beliefs swung a certain way. We definitely were not expecting the results of this election, but hopefully we can move forward and continue the progress that we have already made.
ReplyDeleteThe FBI probe into Clinton's email definitely cost her the election. It persuaded many of the undecided voters to vote for Trump because of how much Clinton was still hiding at the time and how she could not be trusted as a result.
ReplyDeleteI disagree, I believe that those who believed in the scandal behind Clinton's already were decided on voting Trump. Because this scandal has been ongoing for as long as it has, I believe this new development had very little affect on the swing voters across the nation.
DeleteI think that Comey's October surprise definitely influenced the election. I think that it persuaded voters who were unsure whether-or-not to vote for Hilary in the opposite direction. This October surprise was the breaking point for many supporters who were on the fence. Because people didn't want to vote for Hilary or Trump, Comey's reopening of the case persuaded undecided people to vote more for a third party candidate. Because many people voted for a third party candidate instead of her Hilary, Hilary lost major states by a small margin of votes.
ReplyDeleteI think campaigns are never truly decided until the votes are in. People tend to forget that projections from polls in the media are simply estimations and guesses about who might be in the lead. Nothing is set in stone and even if a candidate is set to win from the start, they may still end up losing. Elections are ultimately decided when the people cast their votes. The people may be set on one candidate for the entirety of the race or they may be swaying back and forth between who they are going to chose. I believe that anything can happen and that it is the media is unwise, unreliable, and unethical in its reporting of polling results and its use of horse race journalism.
ReplyDeleteI think that by adding new claims to the investigation, Comey did affect the outcome of the election. I knew right when this was announced that it was unfair and was definitely going to harm Clinton's chances of winning. However, despite this I was still so confident that she would win. I now know that it is very important to no overlook October surprises. I don't believe that you can predict an election anymore either and that it is decided the day of. Everything that happens beforehand will affect the outcome and I think these ongoing allegations hurt Clinton a lot.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Alex V's comment and also Diana's comment above, that reflect a simple principle- that we truly cannot predict the outcome of an election until all votes are in. I think Comey's comments did really hurt Hilary Clinton's chances of winning, as this view of her as being conniving has been perpetuated nonstop this election. However, I think that perhaps from the start, Trump may have had a silent majority. People who supported him that did not participate in polling. This shows that nonresponse is a real issue, and that we really cannot predict an election until votes are counted.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the emails represent the growing resentment of the people towards the establishment. Incidents such as these give Americans reason to look towards candidates who are seemingly blank slates. While Trump is not a conventional candidate nor even the most qualified one, citizens' distrust of familiar politicians such as Hillary is what is keeping Trump in this race.
ReplyDeleteThe emails added to the publics distrust in Hilary. Though they might not have cost her the election, it did not help her campaign. It added to a compilation of issues in a time when Trump's election was fairly strong and his supporters had a lot of momentum.
ReplyDeleteAs of now, it's clear that the email scandal played a substantial role in determining the outcomes of this election. Trump has even backed out of his campaign promise of criminally investigating and prosecuting Hillary. It's evident that Trump's focus on this aspect of Hillary's career was used simply as a temporary tactic to sway undecided voters. It's unfortunate to see this rhetoric's impact, as not nearly as much attention was steered towards many other of Trump's activities such as his failure to release his tax returns.
ReplyDelete